4 Reasons AI Won’t Declare Independence and Take your Job.

AI is creating jobs according to new research findings. Federal agencies are not replacing more than 378,000 employees they have downsized (or retired) with AI agents that do their jobs, either.

Back in the 1960s there were long discussions about whether computers would replace workers. It did not happen. In fact, according to Andrew Ross Sorkin, in an MS-NBC interview last November, the unemployment rate went down between 1963 and 1969. Those of us who grew up during that time may remember that the computer industry created untold numbers and kinds of jobs. Subsequently, the rise of personal computing, commercialization of the Internet and World Wide Web, and the smartphone also created countless career opportunities. Today, the national unemployment rate continues to be low, and even at “frictional” levels in some metro areas, despite fears of AI replacement.

Stories about the AI revolution continue to be ubiquitous in the media. Even Captain Suly, the airline pilot who famously landed his jet on the Hudson River commented about AI in 2024.

Nonetheless, the question persists. Will you be downsized and replaced by an AI? Was AI the reason you have already been downsized? Here are the reasons we don’t think AI is the reason for your job loss or potential job loss:

1. Technology has created jobs in the past,
2. Companies adopting AI are increasing headcount,
3. Workers can serve customers better, and
4. Unemployment remains relatively low.

We recognize that some readers have been laid off at companies with leaders who think they can replace them with “agentic AI” or other technologies. But analytic evidence suggests this will not be a predominant job market trend.

New technology historically creates jobs.

Workers have feared every new technology since the industrial revolution. French workers reportedly threw “sabots” into mechanical looms because they thought these machines would replace them. Workers watched with trepidation during the 1960s as large “mainframe” computers began taking over repetitive clerical tasks such as payroll and bookkeeping. And then the experts that ran those huge and complicated machines began to worry in the 1980s as smaller user-friendly personal computers began replacing their mainframe behemoths.

The changes haven’t ended there. Software that runs online “in the clouds” and on smartphones has replaced many PC applications.

But are there armies of unemployed workers in the streets who have been displaced by computers and newer technologies that have been built on the computer revolution’s foundations? Although some argue that the unemployment rate is higher than it should be, the answer is “no.” Instead, according to a September 2, 2024, Boston Globe article, 60% of the job titles that existed in 2023 did not exist in 1940. As an example, my father, a merchant-marine radiotelegraph operator starting around 1940—became a computer room operations supervisor in the 1960s. He spent much of his post-war career with the same company. His job changed, but it did not go away.

Andrew Ross Sorkin pointed out in his recent MS-NBC interview that there were about 400,000 telephone operators in1970. Most of us never speak to a telephone operator today, yet massive unemployment has not occurred.

The rise of World Wide Web technology offers another example. There were no Web designers in 1989, when Tim Berners-Lee developed the first Web browser. Now, millions of people work in the field.

According to research, one of the fastest growing job titles, based on data analytics done by bloomberry.com is Machine Learning Engineer. According to Bloomberry, “1 job title is absolutely exploding: machine learning engineers saw postings surge 40% from 2024 to 2025 – the single biggest increase of any role. That’s on top of a 78% increase in 2024”. Machine learning is the arcane technical discipline software engineers must master to make AI work.

As a result, it is hard to imagine that the AI revolution will follow a different job-creating path than other technological revolutions.

 AI increases headcount and productivity.

AI appears to increase hiring and productivity. New evidence published on Ramp.com shows that companies investing heavily in AI hire more employees, especially at entry-level. Ramp researchers studied 21,559 companies and found that those adopting AI increased headcount 10.2% in the next two years.

New college grads have been especially concerned about the impact of AI on their job opportunities. Ramp found that entry-level hiring increased 12 percent in companies adopting AI.

Artificial intelligence apps also appear to make work more efficient and effective instead of replacing workers. For example, an AI app makes route planning easier for transportation companies and improved weather forecasting for airlines.

Tim Styer, CEO of Ride to Work, LLC, told me his team uses Google Gemini to plan routes for drivers who pick up multiple workers and drive them to their jobs. The task now takes much less time—and most importantly, the AI gets the route right. Transportation routes are now more efficient, and the time it takes to plan the route is much shorter.

AI software has also improved aviation weather forecasting without eliminating the role of an experienced meteorologist. Captain Sully Sullenberger pointed out in his LinkedIn article that AI is good at making forecasts based on historical patterns but cannot necessarily predict unprecedented or extremely rare weather events. As a result, the skilled weather forecaster is still essential. But forecasts have become more accurate and timelier while reducing flight times and delays.

Evidence to date indicates that while AI improves productivity, it does not replace human judgement.

Workers can serve customers better.

Businesses make money by serving more customers in less time. Satisfied customers generate repeat business. According to the Boston Globe article and the more recent Bloomberry post, AI apps allow call centers to do both. Specifically, the software helps call center reps find answers more rapidly, so they greatly reduce their average “time-on-call.” The reps answer more calls per hour. Additionally, finding the right answer more rapidly improves customer satisfaction.

All of us hate waiting on hold for a call center rep to pick up the phone. When the same number of reps answer more calls, the center reduces wait time markedly.

An AI can also speak any language, even when the reps are not multilingual. Customer satisfaction is also increased when the rep uses an AI to speak with customers in their own language.

In other words, at least some companies are using AI to increase customer satisfaction and profitability without reducing their workforce. Companies that invest in adopting AI are even increasing their workforce according to a study.

According to Bloomberry, customer service reps are still essential for more complicated calls. Only people can show empathy and make exceptions to rules.

AI is not substantially increasing unemployment.

We do not see hordes of unemployed people because of adoption of AI. In fact, the Federal Government, according to a recent report, has had to hire 127,000 workers to replace some of the 378,000 employees it let go or incentivized to leave. There is no evidence, to the best of our knowledge, that AI has replaced a significant number of government workers.

Additionally, the unemployment rate is hovering just above four percent, which is well below recessionary levels.

Concluding comments

The evidence to date is that AI and machine learning will be a net job creator. Historical trends suggest that this will happen. Anecdotal evidence indicates that AI is helping some businesses do more with the same number of employees. Additionally, new research suggests that firms adopting AI are even increasing employment. Fears of massive AI-driven layoffs could be overblown.

None of our observations will help you feel better if your government agency or corporation has eliminated your job because they believe you can be replaced with an AI driven by a machine learning algorithm. But replacing people with AI appears to be shortsighted. The best jobs require human judgement to offer the best service!