5 Surprising Stats for Downsized Federal Workers: What about trying recruiters & job boards?

The job site Indeed.com has reported an unprecedented increase in the number of federal employees seeking work on the site. This 70 percent increase in federal and former federal jobseekers is flooding a market that some believe already shows weaker demand for white collar, highly educated workers. Even worse, it could be harder to find matches for government job titles.

Does this mean it is time to panic because there are no jobs for those downsized by the DOGE? No. it means you may want to spend less time on the major job boards and consider other tactics jobseekers have been using for generations.

We have learned many “urban legends” about job search—common beliefs that are not supported by evidence. Among the job search myths I’ve heard repeatedly over the years are that most people can find work through headhunters and job search Websites. Another common belief is that many of us will land at large companies. Dr. Dawn Graham’s book, Switchers, reminded me of some of these ideas. Specifically, some relevant statistics she mentions include;

1. Chances of finding a job through a headhunter are about .0035%.
2. Headhunters fill only 6% of all jobs,
3. Businesses that employ 500 or fewer workers account for around 99% of American companies,
4. Nearly two-thirds of new jobs are being generated by small businesses, and
5. Some jobs on large Websites pay less than $50,000 per year.

Now, if you have gotten jobs by working with executive recruiters, or if you consistently get work through job search websites, you may not need to change your strategy. Everyone has a unique situation. Statistics offer perspective, but as we are told on TV, “your results may vary.”

You are unlikely to land a job through a headhunter.

The first job search effort I made just before final exams during my senior year at college was to visit every executive recruiter table at a job fair. There, I handed each one my resume and made my pitch. The week after finals, as my parents and I packed up my dorm, I anxiously called every recruiter that gave me a card at the fair. Everyone either said they had nothing for me or did not return my calls at all.

Now that I have a better understanding of what executive recruiters, often called headhunters, do, I am not sure why they were at the job fair. That’s because, according to the “Ask the Headhunter” blog, employers hire them to find people qualified for hard-to-fill senior leadership and technical positions. Ask the Headhunter says headhunters won’t return your calls, or will lose interest quickly if you are not an exact match for a job they are filling right now.

Headhunters do not need to be career coaches or HR professionals because the job is primarily a sales role. They search for qualified people—many of whom are not active jobseekers—to fill their job orders. While at least two recruiters that I speak with or exchange messages with periodically are qualified coaches or have HR credentials, Dr. Graham characterizes headhunters as “salespeople” in her book.

Devote a small percentage of your job search time to contacting headhunters unless you are a senior leader or a technical specialist with a rare skillset. The probability of landing a job through a headhunter appears to be less than 1 in 25,000. Spend most of your job search time elsewhere unless you have ‘C-suite” or rare technical credentials.

Most jobs are at smaller businesses.

Much of the noise we hear is about jobs with big companies. But, the majority of new jobs are not with large companies. A small business blog supports Dr. Graham’s statement that about 99% of US companies employ 500 or fewer people. Those companies, furthermore, are generating around two-thirds of new jobs in our economy.

These statistics suggest that, as a government or former government employee, you may want to look beyond the large companies that are actively recruiting. Smaller companies may benefit from your skills and experience but they may not have the resources to recruit.

This presents a challenge to federal workers and former federal employees seeking jobs in business. The culture of an entrepreneurial small company is going to differ markedly from the culture of a federal bureaucracy. So, you will have to adapt to a workplace that may have less rules and structure, and a more rapid pace of change.

The best-paying jobs may not be “on the boards.”

Dr. Graham pointed out in her book that a surprising number of postings (perhaps 20%) on major job sites pay less than $50,000 per year. This is not even an entry-level college-graduate salary in high-demand occupations. Additionally, clients have told me that the calls they receive as a result of uploading their resume to popular job sites are largely from employers recruiting for commission-only sales jobs. Even worse, certain job sites seem to advertise scams targeting low-wage workers.

Coaches like to say “you miss 100% of the shots you do not take” so do not ignore executive recruiters and heavily promoted job search websites entirely. Just recognize that they are there to serve employers—not you—because employers pay them to advertise. Limit the time you spend on them.

What should you do?

So, if you are not likely to find work on “the boards,” and recruiters are unlikely to call out of the blue with your dream job, what’s next? First, don’t get discouraged. Indeed says federal jobseekers are finding few matches when they search on their federal job titles such as “policy analyst” or “contracting officer.” That could be because terms such as “policy analyst” mean different things in the government and the business world. Be creative in your searches.

Remember that your dream job is probably not posted anyway. Most career management coaches agree that up to 80% of open jobs are not posted. So make sure everyone you know is aware that you are seeking opportunities outside of the Federal Government. A few people you contact may express negative and outdated stereotypes of federal workers. Still other people won’t respond to you at all. But a few will call or write back with ideas for you to look into. Follow-up to show those who do get back to you that you are serious. These are just a few ideas to get you started. The important thing is that you take action now to begin your new career.