Last week when we wrote about the 20 job categories with the greatest expected numerical increase in the next decade, we noted that AI and automation are not necessarily the greatest drivers of job creation. Instead changing demographics are driving the need for skilled workers in medical and social service fields, among others.

But when we look at the other side of the coin (jobs that are expected to have the greatest numerical decrease in the next decade), we find that AI and automation are having an impact. AI and automation are expected to reduce the demand for routine and repetitive jobs that don’t require a great deal of human judgment.

Although “superintelligence” may be cool branding for AI products, AI is not super intelligent. In fact, it is not intelligent at all. It is a mathematical computer algorithm, so it won’t take over knowledge jobs. According to an AI guide published in Wikipedia,  “LLMs (and artificial neural networks in general) use statistical algorithms to guess (infer) what should come next based on a large corpus of training material. It thus tends to regress to the mean; that is, the result tends toward the most statistically likely result that applies to the widest variety of cases” In other words as one expert I spoke to said, “It’s fancy autocomplete.” So, despite recent musings in the popular press, it is unlikely to take over the world — or most of our jobs.

Nonetheless economic forecasts for the next decade say that AI and other automated systems will have an impact on employment. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics expects the economy to add about 5.9 million jobs from 2025 to 2035. Some large occupations, however, are projected to employ fewer people at the end of the decade. Cashiers, office clerks, customer service representatives, and secretaries are at the top of the list.

BLS expects office and administrative support occupations to lose 752,100 jobs, more than any other major occupational group. The agency cites the growing use of automation, including artificial intelligence, for part of the decline. (Source: BLS Employment Projections 2025 to 2035)

The table ranks occupations by the number of jobs projected to be lost. The percentage change appears in a separate column. Employment figures and numerical changes are in thousands, so a change of -200.6 represents 200,600 fewer jobs.

The 20 occupations projected to lose the most jobs from 2025 to 2035

Rank	BLS occupation	Employment, 2025 (000)	Employment, 2035 (000)	Change, 2025-35 (000)	Change, %	2025 median wage
1	Cashiers	3,106.3	2,905.7	-200.6	-6.5%	$32,880
2	Office clerks, general	2,600.0	2,443.7	-156.2	-6.0%	$45,010
3	Customer service representatives	2,666.0	2,524.1	-141.8	-5.3%	$44,770
4	Secretaries and administrative assistants, except legal, medical, and executive	1,889.8	1,775.7	-114.1	-6.0%	$47,540
5	Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks	1,532.4	1,446.8	-85.6	-5.6%	$50,670
6	Shipping, receiving, and inventory clerks	827.7	765.0	-62.8	-7.6%	$45,260
7	First-line supervisors of retail sales workers	1,419.8	1,367.4	-52.5	-3.7%	$48,520
8	Tellers	339.2	294.5	-44.7	-13.2%	$43,030
9	Data entry keyers	131.8	98.2	-33.6	-25.5%	$41,340
10	Correctional officers and jailers	397.8	368.2	-29.5	-7.4%	$58,940
11	Packers and packagers, hand	555.5	528.0	-27.5	-5.0%	$36,280
12	Food preparation workers	908.5	881.3	-27.2	-3.0%	$35,320
13	Farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers	788.7	762.2	-26.5	-3.4%	$89,900
14	Computer user support specialists	750.6	724.4	-26.2	-3.5%	$61,860
15	Payroll and timekeeping clerks	159.6	134.3	-25.4	-15.9%	$58,260
16	Claims adjusters, examiners, and investigators	376.1	355.5	-20.6	-5.5%	$78,000
17	Childcare workers	1,010.3	990.4	-19.9	-2.0%	$34,980
18	Cutting, punching, and press machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic	171.0	153.1	-17.9	-10.5%	$46,330
19	Sewing machine operators	117.2	99.5	-17.7	-15.1%	$36,670
20	Office and administrative support workers, all other	231.1	214.1	-17.0	-7.3%	$45,670

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Table 1.2, Occupational projections, 2025-35, and worker characteristics, 2025. Employment figures are rounded to the nearest 100; wages are May 2025 median annual wages.

Why are these jobs expected to decline

Automation is the common thread running through much of the list. Retailers need fewer cashiers when customers use self-checkout or buy online. Offices need fewer employees for routine data entry, scheduling, recordkeeping, and transaction processing when software handles more of that work. Manufacturers can reduce labor needs by using automated machinery for repetitive production tasks.

Retail and customer service

Cashiers have the largest projected loss at 200,600 jobs. BLS points to self-service checkout and online sales. Stores are still expected to hire cashiers as current workers leave, with about 521,300 openings per year during the decade. Those openings are replacements rather than new jobs, according to the: Occupational Outlook Handbook entry for. Cashiers.

Customer service representatives rank third, with 141,800 fewer jobs projected by 2035. According to the : Occupational Outlook Handbook entry on Customer Service Representatives, customers can already use websites, mobile apps, and automated systems for routine questions and transactions. BLS expects people to remain involved when a problem is too complicated for self-service tools.)

Office and financial support

Office clerks rank second, and secretaries and administrative assistants rank fourth. Bookkeeping clerks, shipping and inventory clerks, tellers, data entry keyers, payroll clerks, and other administrative support workers also appear in the top 20. Much of their work involves information that can be entered, checked, routed, or calculated by software.

BLS projects 85,600 fewer bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerk jobs. Accounting software can perform many routine tasks with less staff time. The BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook section covering Bookkeeping Accounting and Auditing Clerks expects clerks to spend more time reviewing records and helping clients understand the numbers.

Computer user support

Surprisingly not all computer-related jobs will be golden in the next decade. Computer  support specialists rank 14th, with a projected loss of 26,200 jobs. Employers are using chatbots and other automated tools to answer common troubleshooting questions. Support specialists will still be needed for cases that require diagnosis and judgment, but BLS expects fewer workers to be needed overall according to the Occupational Outlook Handbook writeup on Computer Support Specialists.)

Declining occupations will still have job openings

The table shows the projected net change in employment. Employers will continue to hire when workers retire, change careers, or leave the labor force. BLS projects average annual openings of 521,300 for cashiers, 289,500 for customer service representatives, and 144,100 for bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks. In each case, the openings are expected to replace departing workers.

This distinction matters when you are choosing a career. A large occupation can lose jobs and still produce many openings. The number of openings tells you about near-term hiring; the employment trend tells you whether the occupation is expanding or contracting.

Key takeaways: What to do if your job is on the list

Don’t panic! Consider your own situation. National projections cannot tell you whether a particular employer will reduce staff. Demand may also vary by industry and location. Review job postings for your occupation and pay attention to the duties employers are adding, removing, or assigning to software.

If routine tasks take up most of your day, look for work that uses your existing knowledge at a higher level. A bookkeeping clerk might build stronger accounting and financial analysis skills. A computer support specialist might prepare for problems that require deeper technical knowledge. A customer service representative might move toward complex account work or supervision. Choose training after you identify the jobs you want and the qualifications employers request.

Keep your resume and LinkedIn profile current. These projections cover ten years, and the changes will not occur everywhere at the same pace. Being ready will make it easier to apply for a promotion, pursue a related occupation, or begin a larger career change when the time is right.